Houston’s 2020 Housing Market and Impact on Texas Property Taxes

Overview 

  • Houston home values ended 2020 at a record high as a result of a thriving market
  • Harris Central Appraisal District (HCAD) will base its 2021 appraisal of your property on market conditions as of January 1, 2021
  • Based on market conditions, homeowners can expect significant increases in their taxable values 
  • To control property taxes successfully homeowners must therefore use Inequality of Appraisal (comparable assessments) in addition to Value Above Market (comparable sales) when protesting 2021 values to the Appraisal Review Board.

2020 Market Report – Houston, Harris County

According to the Houston Association of Realtors’ Annual Market Report, 2020 was an exceptional year for the real estate market. According to all the trends – properties sold, total home values and average sale values, the housing market thrived in 2020. Despite the devastating effects of COVID-19 on the US economy, the Houston real estate market set record after record as it worked through the new normal created by the pandemic. With 2020 trends in the rearview mirror, the impact on your Texas property taxes are front and center as Harris county property owners receive their new (and most likely higher) appraisal values on their property.

A record 96,151 single family homes were sold in 2020, up 10% over the 86,996 sold in 2019, the previous calendar year.  Total dollar volume exceeded $35 billion, up 18% over 2019.  Home prices set new December highs with the average home value rising 11.4% to $347,164 while the median price – the figure at which half sold for more and half sold for less – rose 8.7% to $273,443.

Average and median home values set records which will result in higher appraisal values when HCAD publishes its 2021 Notice Values and the protest season begins in early April. 

In what many thought would be a down year in the US housing market after the onset of the pandemic turned out to be quite the opposite. While the pandemic interrupted housing activity in March and April, the market substantially rebounded through the remainder of 2020 as a result of real estate’s listing as an ‘essential service.’

The strongest December activity occurred in the $500,000 to $750,000 price range where sales jumped 81% over the prior same month.  Second place was taken by homes priced $750,000 and up which grew 54% and in third place were homes in the $250,000 to $500,000 price range which grew 45%.

Year to date average home sales prices rose 5.9% to $324,000 compared to $306,000 in 2019. Median prices increased 6.1% to $260,000 compared to $245,000 last year.  But December’s average rise to $347,164 and median to $273,443 reflect the acceleration of values at year end.  In fact, December month end pending sales of single family homes rose to 7,469 — a 41% increase over the previous year.

Rising values are likely to continue well into the current year since new listings – unsold inventory – declined to a 1.9 month supply from a 3.2 month supply a year ago.  The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University estimates 6.5 months of inventory as a balanced housing market.  Nationwide inventory stands at 2.3 month supply according to the National Association of Realtors.  Houston’s experience is not an outlier.

Harris County Property Tax Impact

With values rising faster than incomes, homeowners are faced with a dilemma: rising values means rising equities but also rising property taxes. Rising Texas taxes can have an immediate and lasting effect on homeowners, while rising equities can help an owner when they look to sell their residential property. Harris Central Appraisal District (HCAD) publishes its new taxable values each year in April.  In April, homeowners can expect an increase in property value based on 2020 trends.

How to Protest

Owners can protest to the Appraisal Review Board by May 15 or sixty days after receipt of HCAD’s Value Notice, if they receive one. (Not all homeowners will receive a Value Notice.)

 If you are dissatisfied with your 2021 proposed property values, Property Tax Protest can take care of the entire protest process on your behalf. We will protest your 2021 market value on both Comparable Sales and Inequality of Appraisal, making us more likely to succeed on your protest. Inequality is an equalizer for homeowners who feel they are overtaxed by a rising market. All you have to do is fill out one simple form and we will take it from there.

We will file a protest on all grounds available for your property, including but not limited to a comparison of your proposed value to the rest of the market and inequality of appraisal. A protest based solely on comparable sales is less likely to succeed than one which includes Inequality of Appraisal (comparable assessments).  Inequality is an equalizer for homeowners who feel they are overtaxed by a rising market, such as one Harris county experienced in 2020.

Inequality is one of the least understood arguments for a reduction before the ARB. When successful it always results in a value below market. Many agents don’t know how to pursue Inequality due to its complexity and nuances. At Property Tax Protest, we’ve done it successfully more often than not. We will work on your behalf to minimize the amount of Texas property taxes you owe in Harris county. You can get started here.

Related Blogs

Can I Get a Taxable Value Below My Recent Cost or Below Market?

Yes, it happens more than you would think. Texas’ Constitution prohibits discriminatory practices in assessing taxes. For example, suppose your recently purchased property is assessed at its purchase price but others in the subdivision are not affected.  You may be appraised unequally even at market. (1)

Conversely suppose a recent sale (or sales) in your neighborhood disproportionately affects your property resulting in a higher assessment than your neighbors’.  Or suppose yours is assessed at market while others are assessed at less than market.

One of the least understood arguments for a reduction is Inequality of Appraisal (also sometimes call equal and uniform taxation).  When successful it always results in a value below market.  Inequality is specified in the Tax Code and commonly used for newly acquired commercial properties.  But it is often not used effectively by those protesting residential values even though it applies equally there.

Many agents don’t know how to pursue Inequality because it’s complicated.   At Property Tax Protest we do it successfully more often than not.  And, of course, if there’s no reduction there’s no fee.

There are three criteria for relief under Inequality:

  • the appraisal ratio of the property exceeds by at least 10 percent the median level of appraisal of a reasonable and representative sample of other properties in the appraisal district, or
  • the appraisal ratio of the property exceeds by at least 10 percent the median level of appraisal of a sample of properties in the appraisal district consisting of a reasonable number of other properties similarly situated to, or of the same general kind or character as, the property subject to the appeal; or
  • the appraised value of the property exceeds the median appraised value of a reasonable number of comparable properties appropriately adjusted. 

Two of the three criteria use ratios and one uses value.  All require judgments that must be supported by data; you can’t just make the claim without facts.  These are complex arguments that are over the heads of most homeowners and many agents.  

The law is weighted in your favor; if you prevail on only one of the criteria the decision goes in your favor.  Also, the Texas Supreme Court has ruled that value determined by Inequality prevails over value determined by market (2).  Thus, Inequality results in a taxable value below market.

Why bother?  Because left unprotested, your most recent value can become the floor for subsequent increases.  A successful protest this year raises the district’s bar for next year (3).  We can save you money for years to come by using all the tools available.

(1) “…it is unfair, and constitutionally prohibited, to require one taxpayer to pay a tax based on market values if other taxpayers are paying a rate that is lower than the market value of their properties.” Texas Supreme Court, Weingarten Realty v. Harris County Appraisal District.

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(2) “If a conflict exists between taxation at market value and equal and uniform taxation, equal and uniform taxation must prevail.”  Ibid.

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(3)    [Effective January 1, 2020] . . . In the next tax year in which the property is appraised (following a successful protest), the chief appraiser may not increase the appraised value of the property unless the increase by the chief appraiser is reasonably supported by clear and convincing evidence when all of the reliable and probative evidence in the record is considered as a whole. . . . The burden of proof is on the chief appraiser to support an increase in the appraised value of property under the circumstances described by this subsection.  Texas Property Tax Code, Section 23.01(e)

What Are My Chances of Success:

What Are My Chances of Success:In recent years about 60% of the homeowners who protested their values obtained reductions.  The others include many whose values were already at or below market – and therefore had no case to present to the Appraisal Review Board — and many who failed to appear at their scheduled hearings.  Those who filed a protest and actually appeared with good data had a higher success rate than those who had no supporting data.  With good data and a professional approach to the ARB your chances of success should be closer to 90%.To sign up, simply return these two Documents. Send no money.

Property Tax Rates: A Primer and SB 2

Local taxing authorities (cities, counties, hospital districts, school districts) must publish certain information and schedule public hearings before approving a tax rate.  Senate Bill 2 currently (Spring 2017) being debated in the Legislature will affect how that unfolds.  Here’s a primer:

Proposed Tax Rate:

This is the rate taxing authorities estimate they need to cover their budgeted expenses for the following year.  If taxable values increase year to year, a lower rate can generate the same revenues but if the rate is not reduced the unchanged rate can generate increased revenues from higher taxable values.  Taxing authorities can then claim they didn’t increase taxes.  (They didn’t; the appraisal districts increased values.)

Effective Tax Rate:

This is the rate that would generate the same revenue as last year.  If appraisal districts have increased taxable values year to year then a lower Effective Tax Rate will generate the same revenues as in the prior year.

Rollback Tax Rate:

A taxing authority may not exceed the Rollback Tax Rate – currently 8% but the Legislature is currently (March 2017) considering a reduction to 4% — which is the amount by which total tax revenues – not rates — can exceed the prior year’s revenues without allowing its voters to petition for a lower rate.  All taxing districts are affected except school districts which must hold an automatic rollback tax rate election in November if the rollback rate is exceeded.  For the others – city, county, hospital district, etc. – a rollback petition is required and the rollback election takes place in a month other than November, when most voters turn out to vote.

Senate Bill 2This bill would reduce the Rollback Tax Rate to 4% and would automatically trigger a rollback election in November.  The effect on local taxing authorities would be immediate and would encourage them to keep total tax collection increases below 4%.  In a market of increasing values this means a lower tax rate applied to an increased tax base.But would limiting total tax collection increases to 4% benefit taxpayers?  In a growing market like DFW, where population growth continues to put demands on local authorities, a 4% cap on tax collections could result in less services just when more services are required.  As Texas continues to attract people moving from other states municipal and county services may be unable to keep pace.  That’s why local governments are almost unanimously opposed to the 4% cap in SB 2.The opposing argument is that if demand for services requires total tax revenues to increase more than 4% then taxing authorities should be required to justify the increase to their voters.According to the Texas Comptroller’s Biennial Property Tax Report school taxes generate 54 percent of local property taxes statewide.  So SB 2 addresses less than half the property taxes paid by Texas owners.To sign up, simply return these two Documents. Send no money.