North Texas 2020 Real Estate Market

The coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic recession has skyrocketed house values in the Dallas – Fort Worth metroplex through the course of 2020. North Texas median home real estate prices were up 9% for the first nine months of 2020 and 13% for November compared to the prior period.  Homeowners can expect the robust 2020 housing market to influence their taxable assessed values, and subsequent property taxes in Texas, when the Texas appraisal districts publish 2021 values in April.

Dallas Fort Worth 2020 Real Estate Market Trends

Although housing activity usually declines during the last quarter of any year, in 2020 year over year sales in North Texas for October and November were up over 20% compared to the prior period.  Low mortgage rates are the primary driver of increased sales, as lower rates expand homebuyer’s budgets, and the COVID-19 pandemic has encouraged people to get into larger living quarters for the longer term.

The impact of Mortgage Rates

Current mortgage rates are at record lows, “an all time low of 2.81% in the week ending Oct, 15,” as the Fed continues to support the real estate market as we work our way out of an economic recession. Decreased mortgage rates allow buyers to spend less on monthly interest payments, expanding their budgets on the home value they can afford. Affordability in the US housing market improves with low rates, so buyers are less concerned about taking on increased debt.

Increased Property Demand

The flood of buyers into the housing market was unexpected following the onset of the pandemic.  The expectation was another economic recession would bring lower home values and decrease buyer interest, however the opposite has come to fruition. Individuals who remained employed through the pandemic often transitioned to working from home. With more time spent at home, potential homebuyers started shopping for larger homes that could support a lifestyle with home offices and larger outdoor spaces.

Supply Constraints

Because of COVID-19, construction on new homes has hit some supply chain hiccups as they are having trouble sourcing the raw materials needed to complete homes and hire additional labor to keep up with demand. Homebuilding in the third quarter was up 34% from prior year levels but builders are reporting sales prior to completion due to the unsatisfied demand. As a result, new construction and listings declined and more buyers are chasing less properties.

In the current real estate market, November’s preowned home inventory for sale was down to 10,600 units – a thirty year low — while sales for the month were 9,400.  As recently as August listings were up as high as 25,000 in North Texas.  In 2010 listings were above 40,000 in number.  North Texas preowned home prices are up over 50% for the past five years.

2021 Housing Market Trends

There appears to be no relief in sight in 2021 for homeowners who are sensitive to higher taxes arising from higher home sales prices.  According to James Gaines, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, “All indicators say we are going to have a good, strong, solid market.  I think for the first six to nine months (of 2021) there will be that momentum effect.”

Will housing prices drop in 2021? “In the D-FW area, Realtor.com predicts that home sales will rise 11.3% in the year ahead. Median home sale prices in the area are forecast to increase 4.4%.”

The date for 2021 Texas taxable valuations by appraisal districts is January 1.  Sales for the prior 15 months and the following three months – through March 31 – are used to establish values using current market trends.  This means that your taxes in Texas will encompass the entire 2020 real estate trends.

Protesting your Tax Assessed Value

Homeowners, however, have a powerful tool available to help control their property’s taxable valuations.  Appraisal districts use Mass Appraisal techniques which evaluate properties in large batches rather than individually.  Mass appraisal is only an opinion and estimate of value using systems and logical analysis of data, not separate, individual appraisals.

But the Texas Property Tax Code (Section 23.01) requires individual characteristics that affect a property’s market value also be evaluated in determining that property’s market value.   Thus, the basis for a taxpayer’s protest is that individual characteristics of the property were not sufficiently considered when the districts use mass appraisal techniques.  To resist the higher values that are likely to be proposed by the appraisal districts in April an owner or agent must be able to demonstrate how those characteristics differentiate the owner’s property from the contemporary market of homes being sold.

Property Tax Protest has been building protest cases effectively for its’ clients since 1998. We will help mitigate your risk to the rising housing market by making sure you exhaust all legal avenues to lower your Texas property taxable value, saving you money when you need it most.

Related Blogs

Can I Get a Taxable Value Below My Recent Cost or Below Market?

Yes, it happens more than you would think. Texas’ Constitution prohibits discriminatory practices in assessing taxes. For example, suppose your recently purchased property is assessed at its purchase price but others in the subdivision are not affected.  You may be appraised unequally even at market. (1)

Conversely suppose a recent sale (or sales) in your neighborhood disproportionately affects your property resulting in a higher assessment than your neighbors’.  Or suppose yours is assessed at market while others are assessed at less than market.

One of the least understood arguments for a reduction is Inequality of Appraisal (also sometimes call equal and uniform taxation).  When successful it always results in a value below market.  Inequality is specified in the Tax Code and commonly used for newly acquired commercial properties.  But it is often not used effectively by those protesting residential values even though it applies equally there.

Many agents don’t know how to pursue Inequality because it’s complicated.   At Property Tax Protest we do it successfully more often than not.  And, of course, if there’s no reduction there’s no fee.

There are three criteria for relief under Inequality:

  • the appraisal ratio of the property exceeds by at least 10 percent the median level of appraisal of a reasonable and representative sample of other properties in the appraisal district, or
  • the appraisal ratio of the property exceeds by at least 10 percent the median level of appraisal of a sample of properties in the appraisal district consisting of a reasonable number of other properties similarly situated to, or of the same general kind or character as, the property subject to the appeal; or
  • the appraised value of the property exceeds the median appraised value of a reasonable number of comparable properties appropriately adjusted. 

Two of the three criteria use ratios and one uses value.  All require judgments that must be supported by data; you can’t just make the claim without facts.  These are complex arguments that are over the heads of most homeowners and many agents.  

The law is weighted in your favor; if you prevail on only one of the criteria the decision goes in your favor.  Also, the Texas Supreme Court has ruled that value determined by Inequality prevails over value determined by market (2).  Thus, Inequality results in a taxable value below market.

Why bother?  Because left unprotested, your most recent value can become the floor for subsequent increases.  A successful protest this year raises the district’s bar for next year (3).  We can save you money for years to come by using all the tools available.

(1) “…it is unfair, and constitutionally prohibited, to require one taxpayer to pay a tax based on market values if other taxpayers are paying a rate that is lower than the market value of their properties.” Texas Supreme Court, Weingarten Realty v. Harris County Appraisal District.

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(2) “If a conflict exists between taxation at market value and equal and uniform taxation, equal and uniform taxation must prevail.”  Ibid.

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(3)    [Effective January 1, 2020] . . . In the next tax year in which the property is appraised (following a successful protest), the chief appraiser may not increase the appraised value of the property unless the increase by the chief appraiser is reasonably supported by clear and convincing evidence when all of the reliable and probative evidence in the record is considered as a whole. . . . The burden of proof is on the chief appraiser to support an increase in the appraised value of property under the circumstances described by this subsection.  Texas Property Tax Code, Section 23.01(e)

What Are My Chances of Success:

What Are My Chances of Success:In recent years about 60% of the homeowners who protested their values obtained reductions.  The others include many whose values were already at or below market – and therefore had no case to present to the Appraisal Review Board — and many who failed to appear at their scheduled hearings.  Those who filed a protest and actually appeared with good data had a higher success rate than those who had no supporting data.  With good data and a professional approach to the ARB your chances of success should be closer to 90%.To sign up, simply return these two Documents. Send no money.

Property Tax Rates: A Primer and SB 2

Local taxing authorities (cities, counties, hospital districts, school districts) must publish certain information and schedule public hearings before approving a tax rate.  Senate Bill 2 currently (Spring 2017) being debated in the Legislature will affect how that unfolds.  Here’s a primer:

Proposed Tax Rate:

This is the rate taxing authorities estimate they need to cover their budgeted expenses for the following year.  If taxable values increase year to year, a lower rate can generate the same revenues but if the rate is not reduced the unchanged rate can generate increased revenues from higher taxable values.  Taxing authorities can then claim they didn’t increase taxes.  (They didn’t; the appraisal districts increased values.)

Effective Tax Rate:

This is the rate that would generate the same revenue as last year.  If appraisal districts have increased taxable values year to year then a lower Effective Tax Rate will generate the same revenues as in the prior year.

Rollback Tax Rate:

A taxing authority may not exceed the Rollback Tax Rate – currently 8% but the Legislature is currently (March 2017) considering a reduction to 4% — which is the amount by which total tax revenues – not rates — can exceed the prior year’s revenues without allowing its voters to petition for a lower rate.  All taxing districts are affected except school districts which must hold an automatic rollback tax rate election in November if the rollback rate is exceeded.  For the others – city, county, hospital district, etc. – a rollback petition is required and the rollback election takes place in a month other than November, when most voters turn out to vote.

Senate Bill 2This bill would reduce the Rollback Tax Rate to 4% and would automatically trigger a rollback election in November.  The effect on local taxing authorities would be immediate and would encourage them to keep total tax collection increases below 4%.  In a market of increasing values this means a lower tax rate applied to an increased tax base.But would limiting total tax collection increases to 4% benefit taxpayers?  In a growing market like DFW, where population growth continues to put demands on local authorities, a 4% cap on tax collections could result in less services just when more services are required.  As Texas continues to attract people moving from other states municipal and county services may be unable to keep pace.  That’s why local governments are almost unanimously opposed to the 4% cap in SB 2.The opposing argument is that if demand for services requires total tax revenues to increase more than 4% then taxing authorities should be required to justify the increase to their voters.According to the Texas Comptroller’s Biennial Property Tax Report school taxes generate 54 percent of local property taxes statewide.  So SB 2 addresses less than half the property taxes paid by Texas owners.To sign up, simply return these two Documents. Send no money.